Ranking the Rooks    

By Rich Swerbinsky   

Each year, as fantasy football drafts approach, part of any owners pre-draft preparations is an assessment of the incoming rookie class and how early gambles should be made on the players that are being counted on to make the biggest impacts in their inaugural seasons in the NFL. Last season as a whole was a down year for rookies in terms of fantasy football production. While fine seasons were turned on from players like LaDanian Tomlinson, Anthony Thomas and Chris Chambers, high picks Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Michael Bennett, Deuce McAllister, Koren Robinson, and David Terrell all were unable to contribute enough to warrant being in any owners starting lineup. The 2000 season also saw few rookies produce. Chad Pennington never got a shot, and no other rookie signal callers really got a chance. Jamal Lewis had a phenomenal season, but nearly every other one of the top back selected (Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne, JR Redmond, Shaun Alexander) failed to produce any significant fantasy numbers. The WR position was littered with disappointments like Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, and Travis Taylor. 1999 was a fine season for rooks that saw Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, and Ricky Williams emerge as three of the top fantasy players in the league. As we head down the home stretch towards the start of the NFL season, and fantasy football drafts nationwide, are there any high impact rookies lurking out there this season? Here’s one guys view of the 15 rookies most likely to make an impact in fantasy football leagues during the 2002 NFL season.

1. William Green, RB/Cleveland-Green was targeted early on as the player the Browns wanted at #16, and will be given every chance to be the workhorse back this team has lacked since their return to the league in ’99. Ignore all the whispers about how Butch Davis is “a James Jackson guy”, and that the carries will be split. Butch and the Browns are committed to Green, and have also upgraded the offensive line he will run behind in ’02. Even with no running game last season, Butch stayed committed to the run and with Green in the fold, expect that commitment to only increase this season. Expect a Tomlinson like 1,200 yard/8 TD season from Green this season on what figures to be a much improved Browns team.

2. DeShaun Foster, RB/Carolina-Lamar Smith is on the wrong side of 30, and Foster absolutely amazed Panther coaches at their spring mini-camp with his display of raw speed and cutting ability coupled with good size. Foster had a fumbling problem at UCLA, and that is something he will need to correct to stay on the field. In the end, expect Foster’s natural talents to win him the majority of the starts and the carries in Carolina this season. I’m expecting 12 starts, close to 1,000 yards, and the majority of the carries in the red zone which should result in around 8 TDs.

3. T.J. Duckett, RB/Atlanta-By virtue of his size alone, especially compared against that of Warrick Dunn, his prime competition for carries in Atlanta, Duckett would figure to get the lion’s share of the red zone carries. If Duckett proves able to get the Falcons more than the 2.8 yards per carry that Dunn ground out last year in Tampa, and shows he can catch and block coming out of the backfield, he may get himself into a situation where he is getting 15-20 carries a game. I’m looking for 7-8 TD’s and 500 yards rushing out of T.J. in ’02.

4. Jeremy Shockey, TE/NY Giants-Shockey finally gives the Giants the receiving threat they have been looking for from the tight end position since the retirement of Mark Bavaro. Shockey is a very seasoned player with receiver hands that was unstoppable in the red zone for Miami Fla. in college. I see no reason why Shockey shouldn’t snag 6-7 TD’s and emerge as one of the top 5 or 6 fantasy football tight ends in his rookie season.

5. Donte Stallworth, WR/New Orleans-Rookie WR’s have been perennially disappointing over the years, but of this year’s lot, I feel Stallworth has a real chance to contribute this season. Much like Chris Chambers, Stallworth has an NFL upper body and is a crisp route runner. Oh yeah….he also ran a 4.24 40 yard dash before in the days leading up to the draft. The Saints are committed to giving Donte every chance to play and succeed as a rook, and 6 scores and 800 yards seem in the cards for him this season.

6. Jonathon Wells, RB/Houston-Running backs are always the safest bets when taking a shot on a rookie, and I feel Wells has a shot to be a real sleeper to be a quality 2nd back in bigger leagues or 3rd back in smaller leagues this season. I’m just not sold on the diminutive James Allen’s ability to carry the rock 25 times a game, and Wells has size, above average speed, and plenty of college experience against quality competition. Plus, the Texans offensive line is already better than what a lot of other teams will field this season. Expect Wells to see about half the carries (more inside the red zone) and around 600 yards and 6 TD’s.

7. Patrick Ramsey, QB/Washington-Despite the fact that he brought in former Gators Danny Wuerfful and Shane Matthews, new coach Steve Spurrier has not been shy to mention that Ramsey is the guy he was targeting all along in the recent NFL draft. Ramsey looked better than the competition in mini-camp, and his potential alone will get him in the starting lineup at some point this season over the lame duck Gator competition. Bank on Ramsay being the best bet amongst the Redskin QB’s and 8-10 starts with 12-14 TD’s. Spurrier’s offensive system and confidence in this youngster make him the most attractive option amongst this seasons rookie signal callers.

8. David Carr, QB/Houston-The Texans have been open about the fact that they want Carr to inherit the starting job sooner rather than later. Seeing that his main competition is Kent Graham, one would expect Carr should be starting games for this new franchise by week 5 or 6, if not right from the get go. With no established runner, and Corey Bradford as his #1 option at wideout, Carr will be hard pressed to post any significant fantasy numbers. Getting 12 starts and tossing more TD’s than INT’s in his rookie season would make for a fine rookie season for the #1 pick.

9. Josh Reed, WR/Buffalo-Reed will have every opportunity to win the job as the #3 slot WR behind Moulds and Price in the Buffalo offense. The common denominator amongst successful rookie WR’s is precise route running, and Reed was the draft’s best at doing that coming out of college. With Drew Bledsoe, and #1 pick Mike Williams in town, the Bill passing attack should be much improved and 5-6 scores from Reed would not surprise me at all this season.

10. Joey Harrington, QB/Detroit-Matt Millen gave into management at the last second and selected Harrington out of the fear of possibly passing on a guy that has the ability to be a successful NFL quarterback. Also, despite showing great athletic ability late last year, the Lions weren’t quite sure what to make of Mike McMahon. Based on how high they selected him alone, Harrington should get at least half the snaps this season in Marty Mornhinweg’s west coast offense. With the presence of McMahon, as well as Detroit’s issues in the backfield and on the offensive line, I wouldn’t count on Harrington for too much this season.

11. Jerramy Stephens, TE/Seattle-Stepehens goes into a good situation in Seattle with little competition (Itula Mili) as well as a starting QB in place (Trent Dilfer) that has historically liked to throw to the TE. Stephens has great size, speed, and ability, but has suffered from some off the field problems. Nonetheless, I am counting on Stephens to score 4-5 times and be worthy of a roster spot on someone’s fantasy team this season.

12. Javon Walker, WR/Green Bay-Walker walks into a good situation in Green Bay given the exodus of WR’s (Schroder, Bradford, Freeman) this off-season. The opportunity will be there, but will Walker be able to handle the rocket arm of Brett Favre in the cold Wisconsin weather? Coming from Florida St., that is a big adjustment, but the Packers were sold on Walker as the guy they wanted with their late 1st round pick. I would expect Javon to settle in as the 3rd WR in Green Bay and to snag 4-5 TD’s this year.

13. Jeff Chandler, K/San Francisco-Chandler hit his final 16 field goals in his career at Florida and was the 1st kicker drafted by a team that annually sees it’s kickers score a lot of points. Enough said, and if he beats out XFL cast-off Jose Cortez, seeing Chandler amongst the league’s top 12-15 kickers at year end, it should surprise no one.

14. Antonio Bryant, WR/Dallas-On talent alone, Bryant sneaks on to the end of this list. Despite the lack of an established passer in Big D, Bryant should see see the field often as well as the end zone on at least 3-4 occasions with the possibilities of a big breakout game always lurking. Bryant is big, fast, and very talented and after passing on Randy Moss, Jerry Jones was not about to pass on Bryant in the 3rd round.

15. Brian Westbrook, RB/Philadelphia-Despite the recent signing of Dorsey Levens, Westbrook is a guy Eagles coach Andy Reid is counting on to play a significant role in their offense this season. Levens has seen his better days, and Duce Staley is not the type of back that you can give the ball to 25 times a game. I would expect Westbrook to play a similar role to the one the now injured rookie from last season, Correl Buckhalter, played. 500 yards and 4 TD’s is the call here.

For any comments, questions, or suggestions about the articles contained on this page, please contact Rich Swerbinsky at richswerb@yahoo.com, or at 216-206-1622.